Ukraine's 40-day campaign against Russia has been a strategic and psychological offensive, aiming to influence the aggressor state and force an end to the war. This campaign, initiated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is a masterstroke of narrative performance, drawing inspiration from Orthodox Christian symbolism. The 40-day framing is a powerful message to Russia, implying that Ukraine views them as already dead and offering a choice to save themselves. But what does this campaign entail, and how successful has it been so far?
The campaign encompasses various ongoing efforts, including the middle strike strategy that has disrupted Russia's supply lines and the long-range strike campaign against military industrial sites, refineries, shipping, and major cities. It is an "influence operation" designed to force Russia to end its invasion, primarily targeting oil refineries to "attempted strategic coercion by attrition" of Russia's war economy. By 5 July, Ukraine's general staff claimed to have disabled 42.74% of Russia's oil refining capacity, reporting significant losses.
The impact of this campaign has been profound. Long-range strikes on Moscow and St Petersburg have shocked Muscovites, triggering social media posts of shocked videos. Practical consequences include long queues at petrol stations and power cuts in Russian-occupied Crimea, where strikes on key bridges and roads have led to a sense of siege. This campaign may also be generating political frictions inside Russia, as commentators blame the federal government for failing to protect critical infrastructure.
The campaign has had a positive effect on Ukraine's international standing. Successes in bringing the war to Russia may have contributed to a change of attitude in the Trump administration towards Ukraine. The Nato summit in Ankara saw Trump suggest allowing Kyiv to produce Patriot missile interceptors under licence, a significant psychological win for Ukraine. This campaign has also humiliated Putin and undermined his support, with speculation of further high-profile military efforts against key units sustaining his regime.
Looking ahead, the campaign is likely to continue and perhaps intensify. There are plans for strikes on key military facilities in Moscow with newly produced ballistic missiles, and Ukraine may attempt to retake territory from Russia, taking advantage of depleted and thinly spread Russian forces. The 40-day campaign has been a strategic success, and its future implications could be significant, reshaping the course of the war and Ukraine's strategic posture.
