The Western United States has been experiencing a winter like no other, with record-breaking warmth and a severe lack of snowfall. This unusual weather pattern has left many areas with abysmal snowpack levels, especially in the mountains, where it's crucial for water supply and wildfire prevention. The situation is dire, with every western watershed reporting below-average snow water equivalent as of February 7th.
However, there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon. A cooler and wetter weather system is set to bring some relief to the region, offering a potential break from the ongoing Great Western Snow Drought.
A Shift in Weather Patterns: Relief for the Mountain West?
The upcoming days will see a significant change in the weather, with a series of Pacific weather systems moving in. The first of these systems is expected to reach central California on Tuesday, bringing rain and some much-needed mountain snow. While the initial impact may be localized, with the greatest effects near and south of San Francisco, the entire state can expect some precipitation.
This system will provide a welcome drop in temperatures, with cold air filtering in behind the cold front, lowering Sierra snow levels to more seasonable conditions. Although it won't completely erase the snow deficits, it's a step in the right direction.
Uncertain Details, but Stronger Storms on the Horizon
After the initial system, there's a high likelihood of additional and potentially stronger storms along the West Coast and across the interior West. A quasi-stationary trough will replace the persistent ridge, creating favorable conditions for recurring precipitation events. This high-energy pattern could support one or two strong low-pressure systems, bringing moderate to heavy rain and strong winds to certain areas.
While it's unlikely to bring Arctic-like cold, the temperatures will be cooler than the recent near-record warmth, allowing for respectable snow accumulations across most western mountain ranges over the next two weeks.
Marine Heatwave Impact: Thunderstorms and Downpours
A major marine heatwave has been occurring off the coast of California, intensifying during January's calm weather. This has resulted in water temperatures 3-5°F above average, with local areas even higher. These warm ocean anomalies can have a significant impact on weather conditions, potentially increasing moisture in the atmosphere and adding energy to incoming storms.
As a result, we may see intensified localized downpours and even thunderstorms with the incoming weather systems. The warm ocean waters could act as a boost, increasing precipitation rates and raising snow levels slightly.
Uncertainty for the Rest of February: More Chaos Ahead?
Beyond this initial storm cycle, the weather patterns become less certain. There are indications of potential polar vortex disruptions, which could lead to an amplified jet pattern over the Northern Hemisphere. If a strong blocking ridge develops over the North-Central Pacific, it could result in another round of the warm West/cool East pattern or even allow late-season Arctic air to reach the U.S. West.
The outcome is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the weather whiplash on a warming planet is becoming increasingly evident, as seen in the California experience.
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