The AUKUS debacle has revealed a critical issue: Australia's struggle to communicate the value of its defense pact with the US and the UK. This is a significant challenge, as the political commitment to AUKUS is being tested, particularly in the face of skepticism and public inquiry. The key problem lies in Australia's reluctance to openly discuss the potential use of the submarines in a regional conflict, especially against China. This lack of transparency has created a sense of doubt and weakened the deterrent effect of the pact.
The Pentagon's review of AUKUS, led by Elbridge Colby, and the subsequent support from President Trump, initially raised concerns about the deal's future. However, the Americans have now fully embraced AUKUS, and the focus has shifted to Australia's commitment. The public inquiry led by Peter Garrett and the media frenzy over the submarines' condition (new or second-hand) are symptoms of a deeper issue.
The crux of the matter is that Australia's government has not effectively explained the necessity of the submarines to its citizens. By avoiding discussions about their potential use, Australia risks giving China leverage over its economic relationship. This is a strategic miscalculation, as it undermines the very purpose of AUKUS.
The concerns raised by Labor MP Ed Husic and the unofficial inquiry are valid, but they highlight a broader problem. Abraham Denmark, a former senior defense adviser, dismisses the idea that second-hand submarines are sub-par, emphasizing their world-class capability. However, the current backlash underscores the need for Australia to establish a social license for AUKUS, a point made by Denmark and others.
The AUKUS summit and various events have discussed the importance of transparency and communication. Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison's recent remarks emphasize the need for Australia to back up its commitment with clear and honest messaging. The skepticism among local mayors, media, and the broader public in Australia is a cause for concern, and it requires a more candid approach to the pact's purpose and strategic necessity.
In conclusion, Australia must grow up and take responsibility for its defense pact. This involves being more transparent about the purpose of AUKUS and the strategic need for the submarines. Only then can Australia effectively address the doubts and skepticism within its own population and maintain the political commitment to this crucial alliance.
